Rough waters ahead in 2024 – and the EU needs to get ready

Alexandra Brzozowski

Brussels: What will matter in 2024? Between two wars in Ukraine and the Middle East and a global election marathon, Brussels buckles up for a busy foreign policy agenda.

Next to half of the world heading to the polls this year, it will also be the last year before Europe gears up for the next European elections and a change in administration.

Let’s take a look into our EU foreign policy crystal ball to see what will shape the discussions over the next few months.

UKRAINE OUTLOOK | With Russia’s war on Ukraine entering its third calendar year, Moscow is counting on time and weakening Western resolve, emboldened by seeing that the US and the EU are struggling to provide new funding for Kyiv despite having promised open-ended support:

With Russia’s war on Ukraine entering its third calendar year, Moscow is counting on time and weakening Western resolve, emboldened by seeing that the US and the EU are struggling to provide new funding for Kyiv despite having promised open-ended support.

In Brussels, EU leaders will hold a tough emergency summit on 1 February to have another go at agreeing on the bloc’s budget and a €50 billion financial aid package to Ukraine, intended to fund Ukraine’s government over the next four years after Hungary vetoed the aid package in December. EU officials now have prepared a potential compromise in exchange for Orbán dropping his veto.

Beyond securing short-term financial needs, EU diplomats seem confident cohesion on Ukraine support will hold, though they agree its degree will decisively depend on whether Ukraine can hold the frontline with Russia.

“We have to be extremely careful we don’t fall into the trap and start repeating Russian talking points on this issue, which effectively have no other goal than leading to appeasement in the long term,” one EU diplomat told us asked about what to think of the ‘Ukraine fatigue’ discussion.

At the same time, expect diplomatic efforts to pick up pace over the next few months. There are considerations to organise a Ukraine-led ‘Peace Formula’ summit early this year, people familiar with the discussions said, especially as Ukraine fears Western attention is split over the situation in the Middle East and domestic election cycles.

MIDDLE EAST | With the Israel-Hamas war radically changed the political landscape in the Middle East last year, efforts (including EU-led ones) for the normalisation process between Israel and several Arab countries have been halted.

As US and UK airstrikes against Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen intensify concerns about a widening regional conflict, Europeans will have to consider their involvement, including when it comes to a potential joint naval mission in the Red Sea.

EU LEADERSHIP| With European Council President Charles Michel’s surprise announcement, the EU’s top job race is expected to gain speed over the next few weeks.

With a potential far-right surge in the polls, pro-European forces’ will be confronted with the need to speed up negotiations over the EU’s top jobs following the elections in June, especially as the bloc’s next executive will be steering into rough international waters.

EU leaders are expected to provide guidelines for the next five years (2024-2029) with a document, dubbed ‘Strategic Agenda’, by the end of June.

US ELECTIONS | The EU will start preparing for a Trump 2.0 risk, though so far EU diplomats say it remains unclear how exactly. Should he or another Republican get elected into the White House, will we be able to ‘Trump-proof’ transatlantic relations in time? Will the United States, whoever is elected president next year, continue to provide a security umbrella for Europe?

CHINA WATCH | Taiwan’s presidential elections were this year’s starting gun for China watchers. President-elect Lai Ching-te could face a tough four years with China in office with no parliamentary majority and the ever-present threat of military action from Beijing.

The EU in a swift statement after the polls cautiously “welcomed” the results, but added it “remains concerned about growing tensions in the Taiwan Strait and opposes any unilateral attempt to change the status quo.” We’ve looked at what’s at stake, as Europeans mull how to navigate ties with Taipei.

Beyond, expect EU-China relations to continue to be a ‘dialogue of the deaf‘ this year, with diplomats being worried the Russia-China ‘special relationship’ might enter a new year with closer cooperation.

Expect more trouble on trade issues, after the EU announced a probe into China’s subsidies for homegrown electric vehicles (EV) and now cheap Chinese biodiesel, and Beijing launched an anti-dumping investigation into brandy imported from the bloc. China is expected to target other products while Brussels might go after green tech like wind and solar, analysts told us.

ENLARGEMENT PROGRESS | Almost all EU member states (minus Hungary, of course) in December said they want to see Ukraine and Moldova, as well as the Western Balkans, join the club, but this realistically will take years.

In general, EU officials have been trying to calm concerns from EU aspirant countries that while last year saw big political steps, this year will be all about the meticulous technical reform work and the question, for the next EU political cycle, whether its current rules are up to the task to admit new members.

The European Commission was expected to send negotiating teams to Kyiv and Chisinau, to draw up the framework for accession talks, right after the December decision. But, according to EU officials, things are not going as quickly as anticipated and both capitals have yet to receive a delegation on this matter.

Montenegro, Albania and North Macedonia are expected to receive provisional accession dates this year, in part to mitigate growing Russian and Chinese influence in the Western Balkans.

For Serbia and Kosovo, accession prospects are expected to look increasingly grim unless they move forward on their stalling normalisation process. Do look out for small, positive steps, though.