UK election: Europe is hoping Labour ushers in a Brexit reset

Brussels: This UK general election campaign won’t be about Brexit: opposition leader Keir Starmer has made sure of that. But could the widely expected result — a new Labour government — take the U.K. and EU’s relationship to the next level?

That’s certainly the scenario many in Brussels are now actively preparing for.

Starmer, who previously argued in favor of a second referendum, has dramatically narrowed the policy gap between Labour and the Tories on relations with the EU.

Last time Britain held a general election, in December 2019, the losing Labour opposition offered another vote and the softest of Brexits; this time around however the party has been clear: no single market, no customs union, and absolutely no free movement.

It’s a strategy borne out of a belief that it was largely Brexit that gifted the Tories a huge majority five years ago — and a determination to prevent that happening again. So far, the plan to take the heat out of the Brexit debate and off the election agenda has worked, with Labour leading Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives by 20 points in the polls.

But despite Starmer’s insistence that as prime minister he would leave the fundamentals of Boris Johnson’s settlement in place, the result of July’s contest will determine the character of of cross-Channel relations for years to come.

EU member countries are keen to expand cooperation with London in areas including defense, security, and youth mobility — and they think a Starmer-led government might just be up for it.

“There’s a real curiosity about what a new government in the U.K. might mean, should one take office,” said one EU diplomat, striking a similar tone to the half dozen European diplomats POLITICO spoke to in recent days. Like others, they were granted anonymity to speak freely.

Sunak’s government has been resistant to signing a defense agreement with Brussels, arguing ad hoc cooperation has worked well in relation to the war in Ukraine.

Labour by contrast, has signaled it is open to the more “systematic” relationship favored in the EU capital.

Such a deal could be easier said than done, however. What any agreement on defense would actually involve is yet to be nailed down by either side — what one diplomat refers to with a smile as “constructive ambiguity.”

And recent suggestions by Labour that a “security” deal could be broadened to include concepts such as economic security, or even migration, have not gone down well in Brussels.

“We’re not sure we see it the same way,” another EU diplomat told POLITICO, warning that the idea sounded too much like “cherry picking” aspects of EU membership. “We’re more comfortable with the classic definition of ‘security.’”

Despite these reservations, the principle of an agreement is there. “We have structured relations with everyone on defense and foreign affairs,” the diplomat said. “So to not have them with the U.K, when we have such aligned interests, is a bit weird for us.”

Other aspirations could also be tricky to pull off. Last month, Labour turned its nose up at an EU proposal to open negotiations on youth mobility, with a party spokesperson saying there were “no plans” for any such deal.

That response came after Conservative-supporting newspapers characterized the policy as the return of EU free movement — despite Brussels officials insisting it was nothing of the sort. (The policy would see easy-access visas issued to 18 to 30-year-olds.) Labour appeared spooked and ran a mile.

“It wasn’t out of nowhere, it was based on six months of discussions between member states,” another frustrated EU diplomat said. Still, “if there was a change in government, let’s see,” a third said hopefully.

Labour, meanwhile, has aspirations of its own — which come with a fresh set of challenges.

Starmer’s flagship EU policy is arguably to sign a sanitary and phytosanitary agreement with the EU — a technical-sounding plan that would see Britain effectively align with EU rules on food and agricultural products.

The aim would be to reduce the number of border checks needed on goods, firming up delicate supply chains across Britain and soothing political tensions around the Irish border at the same time.

Brussels has indicated that it’s potentially game, but EU officials also have warned that they would insist on a role for the European Court of Justice. The court is a red line for the current government and a red rag to the Euroskeptic bull that Starmer has done so much to avoid poking.

Yet would it matter? Perhaps the biggest change in EU-U.K. relations would be on the political side. The dynamic which has dominated U.K. politics for the last 14 years — a Conservative leadership having to placate its own Euroskeptic MPs and party activists — seems set to be eliminated overnight on July 4, if the polls are to be believed.

EU diplomats are entirely aware of the possibility a new Labour government eventually take steps towards closer cooperation well beyond its current, politically expedient pledges. “I think they don’t even really know what they’re planning to do,” another told POLITICO.

Despite his current determination to talk about Europe as little as possible, if he becomes prime minister, Starmer may have no choice.

Sunak’s rush to call a general election before the summer holidays means whoever wins the contest will be hosting the European Political Community’s next summit, just two weeks after polling day.

With 46 other prime ministers and presidents set to converge on Blenheim Palace in Oxfordshire, the meeting will be a good opportunity for Starmer to get to know his European neighbors. They will certainly want to get to know him too.