Looking away is not an option
Leo Wigger – IPG
Berlin: For decades, billions of dollars in development aid and military support flowed into Pakistan. But the days when the South Asian country was at the top of the foreign policy priority list are long gone. US President Joe Biden could not even bring himself to speak to the government in Islamabad on the phone during the first few years of his term in office. But that is short-sighted. It would be strategically smarter for the US and the EU to expand and diversify relations with Pakistan. Especially now.
A step back. The disillusionment in relations is no coincidence. The rise of Pakistan’s arch-rival India, which has long since outpaced it economically and politically, plays a role in this. After all, Delhi and the West need each other in their dealings with China. But that is only half the truth. The failed NATO intervention in Afghanistan from 2001 to the final fall of Kabul to the Taliban in August 2021 severely damaged the relationship of trust with Islamabad. From 2005 at least, the Pakistani security authorities resumed their support of the Taliban , which they had previously protected.
Pakistan was officially on NATO’s side. Since then, top European politicians have also been a rare sight in Pakistan. The visit of Development Minister Svenja Schulze or a group of SPD parliamentarians this summer are rare isolated cases. But looking the other way is not an option, for better or for worse. Pakistan is simply too big. According to official figures, the country now has 240 million inhabitants, almost half as many as the entire EU. And it is growing fast. According to Statista, the average age of the population is 20 years . By comparison, in Germany it is 45 years , and in Bangladesh 27 years . In a few years, Pakistan could even replace Indonesia as the most populous majority-Muslim country. To date, it is the only country in the Islamic world that has its own nuclear bombs.
Pakistan is one of the countries most affected by climate change. According to Germanwatch , Pakistan is also one of the countries most affected by climate change in the world. As a close partner of this year’s COP host Azerbaijan, Pakistan can play an important role in ensuring that the voices of the global South are more strongly included in the climate debate. Europe, on the other hand, can contribute even more expertise and technology locally than before to cushion the effects of climate change. There are also a multitude of cooperation opportunities in the areas of digitalization, sustainability, skilled workers, health and education, which are far from being exhausted.
Then there is the geopolitical significance. In addition to its close security ties to the West, Pakistan has had a long-standing, crisis-proof partnership with China for decades: the so-called all-weather friendship , which is reflected, for example, in the Chinese-Pakistan-Economic Corridor infrastructure program , which, with the deep-sea port of Gwadar, gives China a direct link to the Persian Gulf, at least in theory. Relations with China are not free of tension. The projects have been lagging behind for years. Investment budgets are stalling. Hardly any country is as dangerous for Chinese workers as Pakistan.
The more the world divides into two camps, the more foolish it seems to hand over the nuclear power Pakistan to the Chinese camp unnecessarily.
The more the world divides into two camps, one pro-Chinese and one pro-American , the more foolish it seems to hand over the nuclear power Pakistan to the Chinese camp without any need, instead of exploiting concrete cooperation potential between Pakistan and the EU. This would also be in Islamabad’s own interest, which is trying to keep its foreign policy room for maneuver as large as possible for as long as possible.
More than 20 years after the attacks of September 11, 2001, the issue of Islamist terrorism continues to play a major role globally. Pakistani society itself is bearing the brunt of the fight against terror. Between 2000 and 2019 alone, more than 20,000 civilians were killed in terrorist attacks, most of them motivated by Islamism. The rise of the so-called Islamic State – Khorasan Province (ISPK) is not only posing major challenges to Pakistan. The effects can be felt from Moscow (the attack on Crocus City Hall ) to Vienna (the canceled Taylor Swift concerts) and Germany (Solingen). The increasing global formation of camps and decreasing intelligence cooperation are increasing the options for action for organizations like the ISPK. Another reason for more exchange rather than less.
There are therefore a number of good reasons to strengthen German and European relations with Pakistan right now. And to do a few things differently than before. For example: Pakistan has too rarely been seen as an independent partner on an equal footing. Too often the relations have been viewed through the prism of Afghanistan, China or India policy. That should change.
Pakistan policy after the fall of Afghanistan now has the chance to find a more sustainable style in the slipstream of major world politics.
Conversely, the Pakistani side must be aware that money is no longer as easy to come by in Europe as it was 10 or 20 years ago . The habit of Pakistani negotiators of immediately linking political concessions in favour of European concerns to the provision of financial resources may be understandable in view of Pakistan’s strained budget situation – but it will not be well received. Pakistan policy after the fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban now has the chance, in the slipstream of major global politics, to find a more sustainable political style. It can now focus on long-termism, mutual benefits and equality, rather than on quick results thanks to high transaction costs.
Concrete ideas such as the creation of a German-Pakistani parliamentary group – as recently called for by SPD members of the Bundestag Derya Türk-Nachbaur , Michael Müller and Christoph Schmid – or the establishment of exchange programs could help to strengthen understanding between the two societies. This is urgently needed. Because apart from disaster and terror reports, Pakistan rarely makes it into the public eye. One reason for this is that there is little Pakistan-specific expertise in European think tanks.
Germany and Europe still have a long-term economic and political interest in the societies of South Asia.
If you look more closely, you will find a country that evades simple truths. A country with a diverse and extremely resilient civil society that is not easily put in its place. With humanities faculties that initiate debates with verve. With a pronounced culture of protest. A lively arts and culture scene, especially in music: Pakistani pop songs are a top export. According to Google Trends , the song Pasoori , for example, was the most searched song in the world in 2022. The song, which combines traditional raga harmonies with a subversive text and renegotiates questions of identity and role models, filled the feature pages of magazines such as the New Yorker . It is an image of Pakistan that hardly exists in Europe or Germany.
Germany and Europe still have a long-term economic and political interest in the societies of South Asia. One anchor of this is stability. And it is only right to clearly state these own interests. Pakistan is facing enormous economic, demographic, political and climatic challenges in the coming years. But the narrow focus on security policy should make way for a more holistic understanding of stability that creates more space for civil society to meet and strengthens democratic institutions in the long term: more exchange, more depth, more reciprocity, less finger-wagging. Perseverance, instead of only acting when things get tough. These should once again be the cornerstones of relations with Pakistan. Joe Biden has now understood this too. At the beginning of the year, the White House sent a letter to the new Pakistani government for the first time in a long time.
