Bulgaria’s main pro-Russia party polling second ahead of elections

Sofia: Revival, Bulgaria’s leading pro-Russian far-right party, could take second place in parliamentary elections due on October 27, suggested pre-election opinion polls that were published on Friday.

According to Trend polling agency, the centre-right GERB party is again likely to come first, with 24.8 per cent, comfortably ahead of Revival on 15.6 per cent and the reformist alliance and mandate holders in the last two short-lived coalition governments, We Continue the Change/Democratic Bulgaria, on 15.1 per cent.

The next parliament is also expected to feature the Bulgarian Socialist Party, on 6.9 per cent, There’s Such a People (6.9 per cent), as well as two parties that emerged from the dissolution of the Movement for Rights and Freedoms, MRF, which gathers most votes from the ethnic Turkish community – the Alliance for Rights and Freedoms (8.5 per cent) and MRF – New Beginning (5.8 per cent).

On Thursday, another survey, by Alpha Research, put WCC/DB 0.2 per cent ahead of Revival, which means that second place is likely to be contested between Bulgaria’s two most pronounced pro- and anti-EU forces.

Revival has made steady progress since entering parliament with 5.32 per cent of the votes in the October 2022 elections, gradually gaining popularity for its antivax and pro-Russian positions.

Its rise coincided with the Bulgaria’s far-right’s decline, and as support for the Bulgarian Socialist Party, traditionally aligned with Moscow, started also to wane.

The party has been connected to various controversies. Most recently it was instrumental in passing a law which prohibits “propaganda” for “non-traditional sexual orientations” in the educational system.

Although this measure passed parliament, it has yet to convince enough MPs to pass a Kremlin-style “foreign agents’ law, which it has been pushing since 2022.

Voter apathy is likely to be strong in the elections: Alpha Research indicates that only 30-31 per cent of voters intend to cast ballots. Trend puts it at 38 per cent. In June, 33.7 per cent of voters turned out.

“A scenario in which ‘Revival’ comes in as a second power in parliament is a realistic outcome, not because of leader Kostadin Kostadinov’s potential, but because everybody else’s inability to do better,” Polina Paunova, an investigative journalist at Capital weekly newspaper, told BIRN.

“The established parties are making their calculations based on how many votes they will lose amid the fatigue around the endless election cycle. True to his style as a political vulture, Kostadinov is attracting those who are increasingly frustrated but still willing to vote. As long as the other parties are looking away, never creating truly motivating campaigns, never delving too deeply into why people don’t vote, Kostadinov will have better and better perspectives,” Paunova warned.

Despite their erratic decisions, several nationalist factions have retained their support base.

There’s Such a People, founded by Slavi Trifonov. came first in the elections in July 2021, then sharply declined in relevancy, but still remains poised to win at least 6 per cent of the votes.

At different times, it has gravitated towards the country’s pro-Russian President Rumen Radev, and to GERB in 2021-2022. There’s Such a People ended the coalition government of Kiril Petkov and WCC by leaving the cabinet and moving to the opposition. Most recently, it has shifted towards Revival.

Two other nationalist parties are lurking around the 4-per-cent barrier. Greatness (Velichie) proved a surprise phenomenon in the June elections after crossing the threshold without being mentioned in any polls.

But its parliamentary group disintegrated after a fallout between its two co-leaders. This development also came as investigations began into the business enterprises of founder Ivelin Mihaylov, which also included developing an alleged paramilitary unit. Greatness might not fade entirely, as polls suggest support of 3-4 per cent.

Radostin Vassilev, who left There’s Such a People in 2022 claiming criminal ties in the party, and then moved to We Continue the Change – but left after leaking recordings of party meetings to the media– in June started his own party, Moral, Unity and Honour (in Bulgarian, the abbreviation forms the word “Sword”). It is on about 3 per cent.

Meanwhile, the stalemate is having tangible effects on Bulgaria’s perspectives.

On September 26, at the last session of parliament, There’s Such a People, Revival, the BSP, Greatness and MRF – New Beginning, blocked proceedings in protest against amendments to the Recovery and Resilience Plan and the planned closure of the Maritsa Iztok power plant.

MPs claimed that through this, Bulgaria lost over 1 billion euros in European funds due to parliament’s failure to pass the amendments before the September 30 deadline.