Could $100m of Elon Musk’s money sway a general election for Reform UK?

London: Over the 2024 general election period, combined donations to every UK party totalled about £50m. If reports are to be believed, Elon Musk could be about to give considerably more to just one – Reform UK. Is this a political game-changer? As ever with politics and money, there is no one answer.

One caveat must be mentioned: not only is the prospect of the world’s richest person helping out Nigel Farage’s party still very much at the ideas stage, but the mooted figure of $100m (£80m) is disputed, with the Reform leader describing it as “for the birds”.

That said, and with a final qualification that under electoral law, the donation would need to be channelled through a UK-based subsidiary, Musk does have a clear track record in shifting the political dial using his riches, spending an estimated $250m-plus helping Donald Trump get re-elected.

What would £80m buy? In part it depends on the context. Unlike the no-financial-holds-barred world of US presidential politics, UK parties are limited to spending just over £54,000 per constituency in the 12 months before a general election. Multiplied by 632 Commons seats, excluding those in Northern Ireland, and it totals about £34m, less than half Musk’s supposed largesse.

However, winning elections is about more than just the buildup. Richard Tice, Farage’s deputy, has raised the idea of using a windfall to try to fill the electoral roll with younger and hopefully Reform-minded voters, an echo of Musk’s stunt of giving away $1m in a daily lottery to Republicans who registered to vote.

Gawain Towler spent years running media operations for Farage in Ukip, the Brexit party and, until recently, Reform. Towler said if he was put in charge of an £80m donation he would use about £6m a year for the party and disperse the rest into “the biosphere”.

“Spend it on the thinktanks that take on the quangos, take on the ‘woke mind virus’, as Musk would say, and spread it out,” he said. “Because basically, you can’t do it on your own. You need to build a broader public movement, a bigger pond.”

Having access to significant sums would have been a novelty for Towler given the way Farage’s parties, despite occasional help from millionaires including Tice and, previously, Arron Banks, generally operated on a shoestring.

Towler was often the sole press officer for one of the most publicity-generating parties, something he recalled being “a bloody nightmare”. While greater resources for this would have been a distinct help, he said, a sudden rush of riches could bring risks.

“We actually worked very well as a lean organisation,” Towler said. “The Brexit party, when it got money, employed well over 100 people and it became very flabby and awkward and difficult. So maintaining some level of leanness in the operation is more effective, more efficient, and creates less internal issues.”

Nonetheless, some in Labour are concerned at how Musk’s money could help Reform in an election, particular by increasing Farage’s populist voice.

“This sort of money would make a huge difference for any party’s electoral hopes, let alone Reform’s,” one longtime Labour figure said. “He could be able to amplify his massive voice on social media, that none of the main political parties have.”

Farage and Tice have set out a vision to professionalise their still sometimes freewheeling party, saying they want to copy how the Liberal Democrats have used council elections to create local bridgeheads into parliamentary seats, with the central party coordinating a mass of energetic branches.

This is not necessarily beyond the reach of Reform, which recently passed the 100,000-member mark, but it takes time, and some electoral veterans believe even £80m would not notably speed up the process.

One senior Lib Dem figure said that in July’s general election, where their party shot from 15 MPs to 72, the money to hire more staff and print millions of leaflets was essential.

They added: “But without wanting to sound cliched, probably the single most important thing was having a big enough network of volunteers to knock on doors, speak to people and then make sure we were addressing their concerns in a way that was sort of true to us. I don’t think you can replicate that with money alone.”

Another key element of the Lib Dems’ success was their ability to tempt supporters of other parties to vote tactically, something the party figure said was dependent on them being an easy second choice.

“With Reform, I suspect there is much more of a ceiling on people who are willing to vote for them,” the figure said. “With Farage, there is a core of people who absolutely love him, but also loads of people who absolutely hate him. They’ve got this issue that that we don’t have, which is that there will be a significant block of people who are very, very motivated to beat them.”

Farhad Divecha, the managing director of the UK-based digital marketing agency AccuraCast, said the most effective tech firm to spend with would be Meta. “It would mean the average individual on Facebook would see a Reform ad at least five times, whether or not they click on it,” he said.

Musk’s own social media platform, X, would also be an obvious candidate for digital advertising expenditure. However, TikTok, where Farage has proved a hit with users, does not accept political advertising.