UK box office forecast to top £1bn in 2025 after year-on-year fall

London: The UK box office is forecast to surpass £1bn next year for the first time in six years, but cinema bosses still say moviegoing will not return to pre-pandemic levels until 2026.

The pace of the hoped-for recovery at the box office was disrupted by the Hollywood actors’ and writers’ strikes last summer, which delayed the release of a number of blockbusters.

As a result, the research company Omdia forecasts that the UK box office will decline marginally to £931m in 2024.

This is down from £978m in 2023 and marks the first annual contraction since 2020, when the Covid pandemic forced cinemas to close.

The strikes have dealt a financial blow to cinema operators aiming to reignite the cinemagoing habits of film fans after the pandemic, during which the UK’s largest operator, Cineworld, was forced to enter bankruptcy protection in the US and later downsized its British operation in efforts to pay down its huge debt pile.

“We knew it was not going to be the best year, and worse than last year, because of the impact of the strikes,” said David Hancock, Omdia’s chief media and entertainment analyst. “The problem is, if you don’t have a consistency in the supply of films, you lose momentum and people forget about going. The pandemic completely broke the habit of regular cinemagoing. It takes time to build it back up again. It is difficult because it keeps getting broken.”

Nevertheless, this year has seen flashes of pre-pandemic levels of commercial success, with Deadpool & Wolverine becoming the biggest-grossing R-rated film of all time, and Inside Out 2 the highest-grossing animated movie ever.

The festive season schedule of releases has provided hope that the broken habit of regular cinemagoing might be on the mend, with films such as Gladiator II, Wicked, Paddington in Peru, and Moana 2 promising a very merry Christmas for the industry.

“The films we have right now are making for an unbelievable time,” said Tim Richards, the chief executive of the Vue cinema chain. “Prebookings on Wicked were at Barbie levels. December looks like it could be a very, very strong month, possibly the best in 10 years, and maybe one of the best ever.”

Next year’s hopes will be pinned on blockbusters, including the delayed premiere of the final instalment in the Mission: Impossible series, a reboot of Superman, a live-action version of the world’s bestselling video game Minecraft, Wicked 2, the next release in the Jurassic World franchise, and Avatar 3 next Christmas.

Omdia has forecast that the UK box office will reach £1.02bn next year, the highest level since 2019, when it hit £1.25bn.

“I am hopeful 2025 will be more consistent,” said Hancock. “It could be the first real year to be able to say that this is where attendance is post-Covid.”

However, while admission numbers are expected to climb year on year, from 121m in 2024 to 129m in 2025, that would still be well down on 2019’s 176m.

Much of the perceived strain on the UK cinema industry stems from the travails at Cineworld, which also operates the Picturehouse chain.

As part of an international restructuring, the company, which had operated about 110 sites in the UK and Ireland, closed five, with 20 more in limbo amid acrimonious discussions with landlords about a reduction in rents.

However, operators including Odeon, Vue and Omniplex, which operates 43 sites in the UK and Ireland, are in the process of taking over those sites after the end of Cineworld’s negotiation period with landlords.

“All eyes have been on Cineworld but what has happened there is an extraordinary event,” said one industry source. “An aberration of the market generally. It is an unfortunate narrative for the industry and it is not indicative of the market at all, or the state of the recovery.”

As cinemagoers signal an increasing appetite for the big screen, operators such as Odeon and Vue are continuing to invest heavily in upgrading the viewing experience, such as through reclining seats and higher-quality projectors and sound, to cash in on the desire for a premium experience.

“There is a lot of money going in,” said Richards. “It shows our commitment and belief in the industry, but next year is not the ‘recovery’ year. Absolutely not. There are some amazing movies coming, but still not enough of them.”

Cinema operators are keeping faith that this continuing investment is worth it and are banking on a fully fledged recovery in moviegoing over time.

The UK now has the sixth-highest number of premium screens in the world, after China, the US, Canada, Germany and Japan.

As the 2026 release calendar continues to fill out, there is plenty of reason for optimism that film fans will find the lure of the blockbuster stronger than ever.

Movies scheduled for release include Avengers: Doomsday, Robert Pattinson’s return as the caped crusader in The Batman Part II, and the family-friendly Shrek 5, Toy Story 5, Jumanji 3 and a live-action version of Moana.

“We still haven’t had a full calendar year of films coming through,” said Richards. “That will return in 2026 and that will be the test.”