Italy is Trump’s new bridge to Europe

Rome: When US President Donald Trump vowed to impose tariffs on the European Union’s goods earlier this month, the bloc’s response was clear: The EU would respond “firmly.” But Italy’s premier, Giorgia Meloni, chose a more conciliatory stance. “A clash is in nobody’s interest. This is why, understanding the issue [Trump] raised, I believe that dialogue and, let’s say, a balanced and proportionate solution is the way to deal with it,” Meloni told journalists on Feb. 3.

Over the past few months, Meloni has carefully positioned herself as the closest mainstream European leader to Trump, boosting her credentials as a potential “bridge” between the new U.S. administration and Europe. She was the only EU head of government invited to Trump’s inauguration in January. Earlier the same month, she visited him at Mar-a-Lago, where Trump defined her as a “fantastic woman” who has “really taken Europe by storm.”

Meloni’s political trajectory traces her switch from a right-wing firebrand leader of a party with postwar neo-fascist roots to a more run-of-the-mill conservative, especially on foreign policy, after she became prime minister. Along the way, she has become a symbol for the ways that the populist right can become a pragmatic governing force upon taking office.

The evidence of her pragmatism is plentiful. She maintained close ties with the administration of former U.S. President Joe Biden before Trump’s victory. She has also expressed her unwavering support for Western sanctions on Russia and military aid for Ukraine with both Biden and in her meetings with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, saying in November last year that Italy would never backtrack on its support for Ukraine.

While supporting Israel’s right to defend itself after Hamas’s brutal attack on Oct. 7, 2023, she has been a strong advocate of the so-called two-state solution to end the historic conflict between Israel and the Palestinians. She pushed for a cease-fire and the release of all the hostages held by Hamas for months. In December, she also met in Rome the head of the Palestinian National Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, pledging Italian efforts to help the reconstruction of Gaza and the process to reform and strengthen Palestinian institutions.

A long-standing European Union critic, which she had previously lambasted as interfering in national affairs and undermining national identity, she worked to reassure her allies that she wouldn’t be a destabilizing force in the bloc. A notable success was to obtain European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s help to stem the flow of seaborne migrants coming from Tunisia to Italy by getting the commission’s financial aid to the North African country in exchange for more effective control of its coasts nearly two years ago.

After taking office in October 2022, she emerged as the leader of the most stable government of a large European country, thanks to the internal political weakness of France and Germany. This is a historically unlikely role for Italy—and coupled with the overlap of her views with those of Trump on immigration, gay rights, and abortion, as well as her good relationship with Elon Musk, she has unmatched credentials as the go-to leader in Europe for the new U.S. president.

As Trump negotiates tariffs with Canada and Mexico on their exports to the U.S. and the EU braces for its own share, Rome has been advocating for a leading role for Meloni in European dealings with the U.S. administration. “We want to be a ‘bridge.’ Surely, every country has products which it perhaps, as it has been so far, defends individually. But it’s much better to do it together,” Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said in an interview with Corriere della Sera on Feb. 4 when asked whether Italy would react alone to tariffs, given its “privileged” relationship with the United States.

Many analysts are downplaying Meloni’s ambitions, casting doubts on her potential ability to influence Trump’s policies or on her drive to act in the EU’s collective interest. “At the end of the day, what really matters is the way Trump perceives the interests of the United States, so I don’t believe he is going to be more flexible in pursuing them,” said Daniele Albertazzi, a professor of politics at the University of Surrey.

He acknowledged that the two leaders have ideological similarities and that Meloni worked hard to be seen as a possible “bridge” with the United States. “Trump clearly can sell some kind of dialogue with Meloni to his base, because he can say, ‘She’s one of us,’ or ‘She’s somebody who understands our priorities.’ So, I think we are likely to see some kind of role for Meloni in terms of communication,” he said.

At the same time, this gives Meloni an opportunity to tell her electorate that, unlike in the past when Italy was ignored, now the country is considered an important and serious player in the international arena, he said. But when Trump clashes with the EU—and tariffs will be imposed—this will likely backfire on Meloni.

“Ultimately, what she’s trying to argue—Trump is not that bad and we can talk to him—is going to hit a wall. Tariffs may have a considerable impact on the European economies, and we are not in a good place right now, in terms of the German economy, for instance. And the Italian economy hasn’t done terribly well, either. Growth is still anemic,” Albertazzi said.

Many analysts think that the main drivers of her efforts with Trump will be Italy’s, rather than Europe’s, interests, although she is unlikely to meaningfully break away from the EU stance on key issues, in particular on Ukraine, or to compromise her good relations with the European Commission, which are crucial for the country’s economic stability.

“In the coming months, Meloni’s diplomacy will include an attempt to negotiate limited exceptions to any new U.S. tariffs on EU products and get a pass on Italy’s lagging defense spending, which remains well below current NATO commitments and is unlikely to increase much,” wrote Federico Santi, an analyst at Eurasia Group, in a January report. He added that Meloni can also play a supporting role in lobbying Trump in defense of wider EU interests. However, she would likely take a back seat compared to other European leaders, as her focus remains first and foremost domestic, he said.

Comparatively lower defense spending in Europe than in the United States was a key issue on which Trump clashed with the EU during his first presidency, and it is widely expected to become a controversial topic between the U.S. and Europe again soon. It is also one of Italy’s Achilles’ heels. The country’s defense spending, which is below 2 percent of gross domestic product and is set to marginally increase in 2025, is very far from Trump’s goal to raise it to 5 percent of GDP for NATO countries.

Several NATO members, notably Germany, have generally raised their defense spending since the years of the first Trump presidency. However, there are still broad gaps across European countries, which struggle to determine what a common defense policy should look like and how it should be financed.

“Trump’s record is very clear when we look at issues like defense spending. It is a zero-sum game, so there are no friends there,” said Wolfango Piccoli, co-president of political-risk consulting firm Teneo. He pointed out that besides tariffs and defense spending, the Trump administration and EU are set to be at odds on several other matters, such as EU regulation, the activity of large U.S. tech companies in Europe, and, to a lesser extent, policies against climate change.

At the beginning of February, Trump agreed to delay tariffs on Mexico for a month after talks with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, in which she pledged national guard troops to help stop migration into the United States. Tariffs on Canada were also delayed for at least a month, said Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, after he reassured Trump that the country is reinforcing border controls to stop the flow of fentanyl into the United States. However, Trump maintained a 10 percent levy on Chinese goods, to which the Asian country struck back with levies on certain American goods, restrictions on Chinese exports of key minerals, and an antitrust probe into Google.

Against such a complex background, analysts say that the EU will need to act as a bloc, where “special relationships” can play little to no role. “Meloni should keep in mind that if relations with the U.S. deteriorate—and we saw that it can take as little as 24 hours—Italy won’t be able to manage the situation on its own,” said Teresa Coratella, deputy head of the European Council on Foreign Relations’ office in Rome. “We are part of a system of rules and treaties. I think Meloni is making a mistake in thinking she can overlook this, when, in reality, she should act primarily as a guarantor of the European system and to protect such a system.”