Clothes sales push inflation down more than expected

London: UK inflation fell by more than expected in February, driven by a drop in clothing and shoe prices due to an unusually high number of sales.

Inflation decreased to 2.8%, down from a rate of 3% in January, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

The latest figures come ahead of Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ Spring Statement, where she will set out her economic plans.

Grant Fitzner, chief economist at the ONS, said women’s clothing “was the biggest driver for this month’s fall”.

“This was only partially offset by small increases, for example, from alcoholic drinks”, he added.

Overall prices for clothing and footwear fell in the year to February for the first time since 2021, with children’s clothing and accessories such as hats and scarves also having an impact.

The ONS said another factor was an unseasonably high number of clothing sales. Discounting usually drops off in February as January sales end and spring ranges enter the shops, but that did not happen this year.

Economists had expected that inflation – which measures the rate at which prices rise – would dip to 2.9% in February. However, despite the bigger than expected fall, the figure is still above the Bank of England’s target of 2%.

Line chart showing the UK Consumer Price Index annual inflation rate, from February 2016 to February 2025. In the year to February 2016, inflation was 0.3%. It then rose to around 3% in late-2017 before falling back closer to 0% in late-2020. From there, it began to rise sharply, hitting a high of 11.1% in October 2022, and then fell to a low of 1.7% in September 2024. In the year to February 2025, it was to 2.8%, down slightly from 3.0% the previous month.

The rate of price rises is also expected to increase in the months ahead, with council tax and energy and water bills all set to rise in April.

In addition, a recent survey from the ONS found that almost a half of businesses are considering price rises as they brace for next month’s tax rises and increase in the National Living Wage.

Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, said the Bank of England was unlikely to cut rates at its next meeting because February’s fall was “not an enormous change” and inflation “is still significantly above target”,

“Although policymakers won’t want to keep rates too high for too long given the stagnation in the economy, they are set to stay cautious with a rate cut looking more likely to come in June and another later in the year”, she said.

Reeves will address Parliament with her Spring Statement in Parliament on Wednesday afternoon, with further cuts to welfare spending expected.

She is also expected to confirm a downgrade to official economic growth predictions.

Some economists have raised concerns about the possibility of ‘stagflation’, where prices rise faster than the central bank’s target but the economy fails to grow.

“Economic growth is miniscule and risks going backwards, but should inflation continue to refuse to get back near the 2% target, it is difficult to see what the Bank of England can do with interest rates,” said Lindsay James from wealth manager Quilter.

Chief Secretary to the Treasury Darren Jones said the government’s “number one mission is kickstarting growth” and pledged to go “further and faster on growth through our plan for change”.

Shadow chancellor Mel Stride said the Conservatives left government in July “with inflation bang on target” and urged Reeves take “urgent action” in her Spring Statement or “working families will continue to pay the price”.

The Liberal Democrats said the inflation figure “will be of no comfort to the millions of families across the country who are struggling”.