Portugal’s F-16 jets replace Dutch F-35s in Estonia mission

Four Portuguese F-16 fighter jets touched down at Ämari Air Base in Estonia this week, marking the start of a four-month stint leading NATO’s enhanced Air Policing mission in the Baltic region.

The Portuguese Air Force has stepped in to replace a detachment of Royal Netherlands Air Force F-35s, which wrapped up their deployment at the same base after months of securing the skies over Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. The handover underscores NATO’s ongoing commitment to protecting its eastern flank, a region where airspace security has taken on heightened importance in recent years.

With roughly 90 personnel accompanying the four F-16M jets, Portugal’s mission also marks its first air policing deployment to Estonia, expanding its footprint in the Baltics after previous rotations in Lithuania.

The transition began with a formal ceremony earlier this month at Air Base Number 5 in Monte Real, Portugal. There, military personnel received the National Colours from Air Commander Lieutenant General Sérgio Pereira, who spoke of the pride and professionalism his team would bring to the task.

“When we are present, we do so in a distinctive, professional, and credible manner, as only those who bear the national flag know how to do,” Pereira said, addressing the airmen and women set to represent Portugal abroad. His words reflect a sense of national duty as the country takes on a visible role in NATO’s collective defense efforts, stepping into a mission that has rotated among allied nations since its inception.

For the past few months, the Dutch F-35s had been the backbone of this air policing effort, operating out of Ämari following a major renovation of the base’s runway. That upgrade allowed the airfield to host NATO’s first aircraft deployment since the work was completed, a milestone for Estonia’s growing role in alliance operations.

The Dutch mission wasn’t just about keeping watch over the skies—it also showcased collaboration with Estonian forces. Technicians from the Estonian Air Force got a close look at F-35 maintenance during an Agile Combat Employment event, a practical exercise in sustaining aircraft in austere conditions.

The Dutch jets also flexed their fifth-generation capabilities in a multi-domain mission dubbed Find, Fix, Track, and Trace, highlighting the advanced sensors and networking that set the F-35 apart from older platforms like the F-16.

Now, Portugal’s F-16s take the reins, bringing a different flavor to the mission. The F-16M, a modernized version of the venerable Fighting Falcon, lacks the stealth and sensor fusion of the F-35 but offers proven reliability and agility.

Introduced in the late 1970s, the F-16 has evolved through decades of upgrades, with Portugal’s fleet benefiting from mid-life updates that enhance its avionics and weapons systems. While the F-35 represents the cutting edge of air combat technology, the F-16 remains a workhorse, capable of scrambling quickly to intercept potential threats—a key requirement for air policing duties.

NATO officials have emphasized that the shift from Dutch to Portuguese aircraft won’t compromise the mission’s effectiveness, pointing to the seamless coordination that has defined these rotations.

The Baltic Air Policing mission itself dates back to 2004 when Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania joined NATO without their own fighter jets to patrol their airspace. Since then, allied nations have taken turns deploying aircraft to bases like Ämari and Šiauliai in Lithuania, ensuring a continuous presence to deter violations and respond to incidents.

The effort gained new urgency after Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, which prompted NATO to bolster its eastern defenses. Portugal’s involvement builds on its earlier contributions, including multiple deployments to Lithuania since 2007. This latest rotation to Estonia extends that legacy, signaling Lisbon’s willingness to support allies farther north.

Details of the Portuguese deployment reveal a lean but capable force. The four F-16s will operate alongside air traffic controllers, maintenance crews, and support staff, totaling about 90 personnel.

That’s a compact footprint compared to some past rotations, but it aligns with the mission’s focus on rapid response rather than sustained combat operations. The jets are equipped to handle a range of scenarios, from identifying stray aircraft to escorting them out of NATO airspace.

While specific threats aren’t publicly detailed, the Baltic region has seen periodic incursions by Russian military planes over the years, a pattern that keeps these deployments on alert.

The Dutch, meanwhile, leave behind a record of technical achievement at Ämari. Their F-35s, among the newest in NATO’s arsenal, brought stealth and real-time data-sharing to the table. During their tenure, Estonian technicians observed how the jets were serviced, gaining insights into a platform that’s still rare in European skies.

The Find, Fix, Track, and Trace exercise further demonstrated the F-35’s ability to integrate with other assets, a nod to NATO’s push for multi-domain operations where air, land, and sea forces operate as a single unit. That capability could prove vital in a crisis, though air policing missions typically focus on peacetime vigilance rather than wartime scenarios.

As the Dutch detachment heads home, their next stop is Leeuwarden Air Base in the Netherlands, where they’ll join a major NATO exercise known as Ramstein Flag 25. Running from March 31 to April 11, the event will draw over 90 aircraft from more than 15 allied nations, testing everything from tactical maneuvers to rapid deployment.

It’s a chance for the Royal Netherlands Air Force to build on its Baltic experience, honing skills in a larger, more complex setting. For NATO, the exercise reinforces the interoperability that’s central to its strategy—ensuring that forces from different countries can work together smoothly, whether in routine patrols or high-stakes operations.

Back in Estonia, the Portuguese arrival carries symbolic weight. It’s not just a change of aircraft but a demonstration of alliance solidarity, with a southern European nation stepping up to secure a northern frontier.

The F-16s may lack the futuristic sheen of the F-35, but their track record speaks for itself. Over 4,500 F-16s have been built since the jet’s debut, serving in dozens of air forces worldwide. Portugal’s fleet, acquired in the 1990s and later upgraded, reflects a practical approach to air power—versatile enough for NATO’s needs without the eye-watering cost of newer platforms.

The F-35, by contrast, has faced criticism for its price tag and development delays, though its advocates argue that its capabilities justify the investment.

Comparing the two jets isn’t just a matter of tech specs; it’s a window into NATO’s broader strategy. The alliance relies on a mix of advanced and legacy systems, balancing innovation with affordability. The F-16’s radar and weapons may not match the F-35’s stealthy edge, but its lower operating costs and familiarity make it a practical choice for missions like this one.

In the Baltics, where the goal is deterrence rather than all-out conflict, that balance seems to hold. Analysts note that air policing rarely demands the full spectrum of fifth-generation features, suggesting Portugal’s F-16s are well-suited to the task.

Historical context adds another layer to the story. Portugal’s air force has grown into its NATO role over decades, transitioning from a focus on national defense to international missions. Its F-16s first joined Baltic patrols in 2007, a debut that tested the country’s ability to project power far from home. Since then, the jets have returned to the region multiple times, building operational experience.

Estonia, too, has evolved as a NATO partner, with Ämari emerging as a key hub since its runway overhaul. The base’s upgrades reflect a broader trend of infrastructure investment along the alliance’s eastern edge, driven by the need to counter potential threats.

For the personnel now settling in at Ämari, the mission is both routine and significant. They’ll spend the next four months on standby, ready to launch at a moment’s notice if an unidentified aircraft enters NATO airspace. It’s a job that blends monotony with high stakes, requiring discipline and precision.

Pereira’s confidence in his team voiced at Monte Real, will be put to the test in real-world conditions—an Estonian winter, a busy airspace, and the weight of representing Portugal on NATO’s front line.

As this rotation unfolds, the alliance’s attention is already shifting to what comes next. The Dutch departure for Ramstein Flag 25 signals a pivot to larger-scale training, while Portugal’s presence at Ämari keeps the day-to-day mission on track.

Together, these efforts paint a picture of NATO adapting to a complex security landscape—relying on proven platforms like the F-16, integrating advanced systems like the F-35, and fostering cooperation across borders. For now, the skies over the Baltics remain in capable hands, a quiet but firm reminder of the alliance’s resolve.