European Commission chief von der Leyen faces precarious vote on new term

Strasbourg: Ursula von der Leyen has spent weeks trying to convince European Union lawmakers to back her for a second term as president of the European Commission. A day before a knife-edge vote, many said they still have not decided whether to support her.

The European Parliament will decide on Thursday whether to appoint von der Leyen, 65, for another five years, providing continuity at the top of the 27-nation EU at a time of external and internal challenges.

In her first term, the German centre-right former defence minister oversaw the launch of the world’s biggest package of policies to fight climate change, implementation of Europe’s 800-billion-euro ($875 billion) response to the COVID-19 pandemic, and helped mobilise EU support for Ukraine.

With the EU facing what some see as an existential threat from Russia’s war in Ukraine, uncertainty over November’s U.S. presidential election and an assertive China, von der Leyen’s supporters say she offers stability.

Blocking her appointment following a European Parliament election last month could plunge the EU into political deadlock, against a backdrop of growing popularity of far-right and eurosceptic parties among its member countries.

It could also create a leadership vacuum by upending a deal on the EU’s other top leadership jobs and delaying the launch of the new European Commission, the EU executive arm, until 2025.

“We all see the turmoil in the United States… It’s very clear, we need stability from the European Union,” said Bas Eickhout, co-head of the EU Parliament’s Green lawmaker group.

Eickhout’s 53 green lawmakers and others in the EU assembly say they will not decide whether to support von der Leyen until she reveals what concessions she is offering in a speech outlining her plans on Thursday.

“First, she has to commit to some concrete points,” said socialist lawmaker Delara Burkhardt, citing more EU funding so that industry and households can afford the green transition.

Von der Leyen needs support from at least 361 of the European Parliament’s 720 lawmakers.

The support of all lawmakers from her centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), socialists and liberals would give her 401 votes, but it is a secret ballot and some members are expected to break ranks and oppose her.

To pass comfortably, she may need support from parts of the 78-strong European Conservatives and Reformists group (ECR) or the Greens. Internal divisions in ECR make the Greens appear the safer bet.

Winning over both factions is unlikely, given their opposing demands. The Greens want climate policies safeguarded. The ECR wants them weakened.

Von der Leyen skipped a NATO summit in Washington last week to continue weeks of canvassing support but neither group has come out in support of her. Some lawmakers have indicated they will not back her.

“I cannot imagine that we would be able to support Ursula von der Leyen,” Adam Bielan, who heads the ECR’s 18 Polish lawmakers, said after a meeting with her on Tuesday, citing “wrong decisions” on migration and climate change.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy group, which is part of the ECR, has not confirmed whether its 24 lawmakers will support von der Leyen.

There is no clear “Plan B” candidate for securing lawmakers’ backing if von der Leyen does not do so.

Some members of the European Parliament say that thwarting her would embolden eurosceptic lawmakers – who pledge to oppose her – by indicating that their strengthened numbers after last month’s election have empowered them to disrupt EU institutions.

“It would be seen as a victory, particularly for the far right,” said EPP lawmaker Sean Kelly, who plans to back her.