EEA trends and projections: EU greenhouse gas emissions see significant drop in 2023

Brussels: Total net greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union dropped by 8% last year, marking significant progress towards climate neutrality for the EU. The huge drop was led by a significant decline in coal use and growth of renewable energy sources and supported by reduced energy consumption across Europe, according to estimated figures included in the latest European Environment Agency (EEA) ‘Trends and Projections’ report published Thursday.

The annual EEA check-up on EU progress on its energy and climate targets stresses that EU Member States will need to sustain this rate of progress to achieve Europe’s climate and energy targets.

In 2023, EU total net greenhouse gas emissions decreased to 37% below 1990 levels according to preliminary figures in the EEA Trends and Projections report. After two years of slower progress against the backdrop of recovery from the COVID crisis and impact of the energy crisis, the EU is resuming its strong downward trajectory in emissions, moving towards climate neutrality. At the same time, sustained progress will be needed towards 2030 and beyond, the report says.

The EU Climate Law sets ambitious targets for greenhouse gas emission reductions – a net 55% reduction below 1990 levels by 2030 and climate neutrality by 2050, to deliver European commitments under the international Paris Agreement. This target includes net removals from the so-called land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector as well as emissions from international aviation and maritime transport activities regulated under EU law. The European Commission has also recommended a 90% net reduction target for 2040.

Based on reported existing climate measures alone, Member State projections forecast a reduction in net emissions by 2030 to a level 43% below 1990 levels. However, 22 Member States have submitted additional projections that include planned but not yet launched measures. Together, these would reduce net emissions in the EU by 49% below 1990 levels in 2030, in the target scope of the EU Climate Law. Updates to national energy and climate plans — where several Member States have yet to submit their revised plans — offer an opportunity to implement additional measures to bridge the gap towards the target. An initial European Commission estimate of the plans submitted so far confirm an increased collective ambition level and a reduction of the gap.

As our recent European climate risk assessment revealed, the impact of climate change is accelerating. This leaves us no choice but to strengthen our resilience to climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This year’s Trends and Projections Report calls for comprehensive action across all sectors to achieve our shared goal of balancing greenhouse gas emissions and carbon removals within the next two and a half decades.

The accelerating decarbonisation of the European economy has only been possible due to the rapid expansion of renewable energy, paired with the reduced use of fossil fuels. According to EEA estimates, the share of renewable energy has grown from 10% in 2005 to an estimated 24% of the EU’s gross final energy consumption by 2023. Further, the EU has managed to continue reducing its energy consumption: primary energy use has fallen by 19% since 2005, while final energy consumption saw a 11% reduction during the same timeframe, according to early estimates for 2023.

Europe’s emission reductions vary across its economic sectors. In the energy supply sector, emissions have halved compared to 2005 levels. The industrial sector has also seen significant reductions of more than a third over the last two decades thanks to process improvements and efficiency gains. These two sectors make up the bulk of Europe’s current cap-and-trade system — the Emissions Trading System (ETS), and their cumulative reductions brings the 2030 emissions reduction target for ETS within reach.

However, the situation is different for the sectors covered by the Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR) which has national reduction targets. These mainly include emissions from buildings, transport, waste and agriculture. While the buildings sector has achieved an important reduction in emissions — with a drop of over 30% since 2005 — the transport and agriculture sectors have shown slower progress. This indicates the need for a shift to sustainable transport modes, and to implement further measures to unlock the emission reduction and carbon removal potential of the agriculture sector.

The EEA report stresses that maintaining momentum towards climate neutrality will require clear and predictable policies beyond 2030 — not least, an agreement on the recommended a net 90% reduction target for 2040 and an assurance of sufficient investment for the net-zero emission economy of the future.

For 2040 and 2050, existing projections reveal a widening gap between the aggregated national expected emissions and the EU targets. They also indicate the importance of the continued development of new, extended and expanded policies and measures to ensure emissions reductions and carbon removals can deliver climate neutrality in only two and a half decades.

The EEA’s Trends and Projections in Europe report explores historical trends, recent progress and projected future progress on climate mitigation through reduced greenhouse gas emissions, renewable energy gains and improved energy efficiency. It builds on data reported by the EU-27 Member States, five EEA member countries and nine Contracting Parties of the Energy Community.

With this package, the EEA supports the European Commission’s assessment of progress toward meeting the EU’s climate and energy targets. In its upcoming Climate Action Progress Report, the Commission will use recently submitted National Energy and Climate Plans from Member States as an additional information source.