Slowing ELT recovery marks “new normal” for the UK

London: English UK’s 2024 third quarter report has revealed a 75% recovery of student numbers at English language schools in the UK compared to pre-pandemic figures.

Recovery has slowed since the first six months of the year, when 81% was achieved, with waning growth likely to represent new seasonal norms following the pandemic.

“Overall, we expect 2024 to be on a par with 2023 but not exceed it,” said Jodie Gray, chief executive of the English UK, the body representing UK ELT.

“We are considering 2023/2024 as the new normal with figures unlikely to return to pre-pandemic highs or trends.”

Ongoing visa restrictions in major destinations, cost of living pressures, evolving technology, improving English tuition in home countries and the growth in intra-regional providers were cited as possible reasons for the decline.

The report, covering 126 English language schools in the UK, revealed that Italy, Saudi Arabia, China, Türkiye and Brazil were the top five sending countries from July to September 2024.

Amid modestly declining overall growth, Q3 2024 marked the highest proportion of junior student weeks ever recorded, with a ratio of 55% adult student weeks compared to 45% junior. However, volume was 21% lower than the same quarter in 2019 and 10% less than last summer.

Compared to the previous year, Türkiye showed the largest absolute increase in student weeks, and Italy the largest decline.

According to 2024 data, the rise of junior ELT programs has been driving the largest growth in Turkish study abroad, indicative of the wider potential of the junior market globally.

China also experienced a large drop in adult student weeks, though this was largely offset by a rise in Chinese junior learners.

ELT sector leaders have highlighted the acceleration of the growing junior market since the pandemic, which saw surging numbers in 2023. According to recent data, this growth was partly due to more juniors taking English language courses at a younger age.

With total student numbers falling or static, ELT providers will have to compete for a stable or shrinking pool of students, though the more welcoming policy environment of the UK’s Labour government are hoped to benefit the sector.

“The government can make a huge difference to our success, as recent clampdowns in competitor markets have demonstrated,” said Gray, pointing to the restrictive government policies in Canada and Australia that are likely to increase the appeal of the UK as a study destination.

Since coming to office in July, the UK’s labour government has reiterated its welcoming stance towards international students, setting itself apart from the restrictive policies and hostile rhetoric of the former Conservative administration.