Turkiye and EU’s Middle East strategy

Brussels: Turkiye-EU relations entered into a critical era with the onset of the Arab uprisings in 2011, as they brought serious security challenges for both sides regarding a region in which they have vital strategic interests. The EU’s concerns even led the European Commission to launch a “positive agenda” in 2012 aimed at addressing shared challenges in the Middle East through close collaboration with Turkiye. The EU states, which stated that both Turkiye and the bloc could be stronger if united, supported the initiative due to Ankara’s strategic significance in the region.

However, due to a lack of convergence regarding their positions on regional developments, as well as the stances of some EU states in regard to Turkiye’s prospective membership of the bloc, they failed to effectively cooperate and benefit from this initiative. Yet, despite the political tensions and disagreements between Turkish and EU leaders, Ankara collaborated with Brussels on critical security matters throughout this era.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan on Monday asserted that Turkiye should integrate with Europe to build a more effective power in the region, which would also make the EU more resistant to regional and global challenges. Turkish policymakers believe that if Turkiye had been granted full EU membership back in the early 2000s — often referred to as the golden era of Turkish-EU relations — Europe would have a much more integrated and robust security architecture.

Given its established position within Western security structures, advanced defense industry and proven military capabilities, Turkiye is well positioned to strengthen Europe’s security architecture. The growing security threats, ranging from Russian aggression to instability in the Middle East, further proves Turkiye’s crucial role in supporting Europe’s security.

Given this reality, Fidan called for a shift in Turkiye-EU relations, urging a return to the “pre-Sarkozy” era — a reference to former French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who served from 2007 to 2012. Over recent years, the rise of leaders like Sarkozy, who argued that Turkiye does not belong in Europe, has fueled growing skepticism within the Turkish elite and increased anti-EU sentiment among the public. Clearly, over the years, changes in political leadership across the EU states have not led to a fundamental shift in their core policies toward Turkiye’s membership, as identity politics have continued to hamper Turkiye-EU ties.

The EU should abandon its hypocritical stance and recognize Turkiye as a vital partner for collaboration.

Moreover, Turkiye’s tactical hedging, such as its approach toward BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, has further deepened doubts within the EU. Fidan has previously made it clear that Turkiye would not be interested in joining these organizations if it was already an EU member state. This indicates that Ankara is not seriously seeking to join them. Despite the ongoing tensions with the EU, Turkiye’s geostrategic position compels it to seek closer cooperation with Europe. In turn, the EU should abandon its hypocritical stance and recognize Turkiye as a vital partner for collaboration.

In the post-uprisings era, it was the EU that sought Turkish cooperation in the face of regional challenges, rather than the other way round. In March 2016, the EU even signed an agreement with Turkiye aimed at stopping the flow of irregular migration via Turkiye to Europe. However, this deal failed to deliver the anticipated outcomes for Turkish-EU relations.

Ankara now calls for improved ties with the EU on a constructive and results-oriented basis, especially after the visit of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to Ankara last month, which indicated a desire on both sides to restart a high-level political dialogue. Fidan announced they had agreed in principle to hold a Turkiye-EU summit in 2025 to coordinate on how to proceed on all these issues. On Thursday, Fidan also welcomed his Belgian counterpart, Bernard Quintin, as his first guest of the year. They discussed the recent developments in Syria, the Ukraine war and Turkiye’s EU accession.

A new window of opportunity is now opening for the EU to cooperate with Turkiye. So, why is having Turkiye on board key to the EU’s regional strategy?

With the collapse of the Assad regime, Syria, which previously fundamentally altered the dynamics of Turkiye-EU relations, could serve as a key starting point for cooperation. The fall of the Assad regime last month marked a turning point for Syria that will have far-reaching consequences not only for the region but also for Europe.

Following discussions with the Turkish leadership, Von der Leyen indicated that the EU would enhance its engagement with the new authority that ousted Bashar Assad. Syria has become the focal point for both Turkiye and EU member states. Ankara is likely to emphasize that the current moment presents a historic opportunity in Syria, one that could serve as a turning point for both regional stability and Europe’s security.

The new administration in Syria needs international support for the country’s reconstruction and the safe return of refugees. Undoubtedly, the issue of Syrian refugees returning home will be a central focus of European political discussions. While this is a time of considerable uncertainty in Syria and the region overall, it also presents a unique opportunity for cooperation.

Instead of focusing solely on short-term plans for refugee repatriation, Europe should also prioritize supporting Turkiye in aiding Syria’s reconstruction and acknowledge the successful integration of the Syrians that want to stay within the EU. This strategy can only be achieved through close cooperation with Turkiye, which has emerged as a key player in the post-Assad era.