UK election could herald a new political dawn in Northern Ireland

London: This is yet another defining week for politics in Northern Ireland. A week in which defeat for one party leader could help another make history.

A week that sees Northern Ireland’s shortest-serving leader fighting for political survival, while another is aiming to bring his party in from the Westminster wilderness.

Five days that could see the centre ground continue to surge or be left empty-handed.

By early Friday morning, the votes will be counted and the results announced.

It is possible that despite much speculation and tight battles in several key seats the political landscape could remain unchanged.

But it is equally possible that the early morning sunrise could herald a new political dawn.

Gavin Robinson has only been DUP leader since 29 March, when his party was shaken to the core by the shock resignation of Jeffrey Donaldson after he was charged with serious sexual offences, which he denies.

By this time next week, the party could potentially be looking for another leader.

The incumbent MP for East Belfast is locked in a battle with Alliance Party leader Naomi Long.

Last time around in 2019, his majority was just over 1,800 votes.

This time he faces a challenge from the Traditional Unionist Voice, which has strongly criticised what he has labelled the DUP’s “surrender deal” to re-enter power sharing at Stormont.

Mr Robinson was a cheerleader for that deal, rowing in behind Mr Donaldson when he proclaimed that it had removed the so-called Irish Sea border.

Mr Robinson, three weeks ago, rowed back on that claim, conceding that the deal had been over-sold.

The TUV is seeking to punish the DUP for what it has described as a betrayal.

Ms Long is hoping to capitalise on any split in the unionist vote and could benefit from Sinn Féin’s decision not to stand in the constituency.

That means around 1,000 votes in the nationalist enclave of the Short Strand are potentially up for grabs.

East Belfast is not the only DUP seat at risk – the Alliance Party also has Mr Donaldson’s former stronghold of Lagan Valley in its sights.

Sorcha Eastwood is seeking to become the first non-unionist and first woman to represent the constituency in the House of Commons.

In 2019, she reduced the DUP’s winning majority to just under 6,500 votes and that was against the incumbent Mr Donaldson, who had a huge personal vote.

DUP strategists are hoping the party brand proves stronger than the personal brand to prevent a large proportion of those votes migrating to the UUP or TUV and opening the door for the Alliance Party.

The party also faces potential jeopardy in South Antrim, where former Stormont health minister Robin Swann is standing for the Ulster Unionists.

He is seeking to overcome a DUP majority of 2,689 and the DUP is openly nervous as incumbent MP Paul Girvan has the lowest profile of its eight outgoing members of the House of Commons.